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Rangers vs Motherwell Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Rangers

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWW ·

UPCOMING

Motherwell

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.4%0-24.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.7%1-111.7%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.3%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.1%3-14.9%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 69.4% 1.44 -34.6%

Draw 24.5% 23.8% 4.20 +1.7%

Away win 30.1% 16.7% 6.00 +80.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 3.5 32.1% 40.0% 2.50 -19.8%

BTTS 55.9% 58.8% 1.70 -5.0%

Home O1.5 47.6% 66.7% 1.50 -28.6%

Away O1.5 36.0% 26.7% 3.75 +35.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rangers1.6

Motherwell1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RANGERS · PPG 1.52

MOTHERWELL · PPG 1.56

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rangers (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -34.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +1.7%

Motherwell (A) 30.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +80.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rangers face Motherwell in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rangers a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Motherwell 30%, so Rangers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Rangers and 1.2 for Motherwell (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rangers are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.56 for Motherwell. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +66.0%.

Rangers vs Motherwell Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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