Today / Scotland - Premiership / Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock

Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Aberdeen

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLL ·

UPCOMING

Kilmarnock

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.0%0-23.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.5%1-110.7%1-26.7%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.6%3-15.7%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.8%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 57.8% 1.73 -15.6%

Draw 23.7% 26.0% 3.85 -5.3%

Away win 27.5% 23.3% 4.30 +10.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.4% 37.7% 2.65 -3.5%

BTTS 60.6% 61.7% 1.62 -1.8%

Home O1.5 49.9% 59.9% 1.67 -16.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 34.5% 2.90 +6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.6%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aberdeen1.8

Kilmarnock1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ABERDEEN · PPG 1.44

KILMARNOCK · PPG 0.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aberdeen (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -15.6%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.3%

Kilmarnock (A) 27.5%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aberdeen face Kilmarnock in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aberdeen a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Kilmarnock 28%, so Aberdeen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Aberdeen and 1.3 for Kilmarnock (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aberdeen are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.87 for Kilmarnock. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +18.8%.

Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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