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Longford Town vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:30

Longford Town

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWD

UPCOMING

Kerry

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.4%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.6%1-111.1%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.4%3-15.7%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 41.3% 2.42 +28.7%

Draw 24.1% 28.6% 3.50 -9.4%

Away win 22.8% 37.0% 2.70 -23.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 33.5% 33.3% 3.00 +0.5%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 49.9% 46.5% 2.15 +7.3%

Away O1.5 25.6% 43.5% 2.30 -24.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Longford Town1.7

Kerry0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 1.86

KERRY · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Longford Town (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV +28.7%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.4%

Kerry (A) 22.8%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Longford Town face Kerry in Ireland - First Division on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Longford Town a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Kerry 23%, so Longford Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Longford Town and 0.9 for Kerry (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Longford Town are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.71 for Kerry. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +35.3%.

Longford Town vs Kerry Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions