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NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

NK Slaven Belupo

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

UPCOMING

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.6%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.7%1-111.3%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.7%3-15.4%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 40.8% 2.45 +17.8%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 27.6% 40.0% 2.50 -18.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 34.0% 38.2% 2.62 -10.9%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 47.6% 2.10 +4.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 45.5% 2.20 -27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NK Slaven Belupo1.7

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NK SLAVEN BELUPO · PPG 1.55

NK LOKOMOTIVA ZAGREB · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

NK Slaven Belupo (H) 48.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +17.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

NK Slaven Belupo face NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in Croatia - HNL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NK Slaven Belupo a 48% chance, the draw 24% and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 28%, so NK Slaven Belupo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.2 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NK Slaven Belupo are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.92 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.4%.

NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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