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HNK Rijeka vs NK Osijek Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:00

HNK Rijeka

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWD ·

UPCOMING

NK Osijek

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.7%0-24.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.0%1-111.9%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.2%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.9%3-14.7%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 54.9% 1.82 -17.5%

Draw 24.6% 29.9% 3.35 -10.5%

Away win 30.1% 23.8% 4.20 +26.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

BTTS 55.9% 59.9% 1.67 -6.7%

Home O1.5 43.0% 54.1% 1.85 -20.4%

Away O1.5 35.7% 31.3% 3.20 +14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HNK Rijeka1.5

NK Osijek1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HNK RIJEKA · PPG 2.06

NK OSIJEK · PPG 1.44

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

HNK Rijeka (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -17.5%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.5%

NK Osijek (A) 30.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +26.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

HNK Rijeka face NK Osijek in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HNK Rijeka a 45% chance, the draw 25% and NK Osijek 30%, so HNK Rijeka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for HNK Rijeka and 1.2 for NK Osijek (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HNK Rijeka are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.44 for NK Osijek. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.9%.

HNK Rijeka vs NK Osijek Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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