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Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Dinamo Zagreb

PPG 2.47 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWD ·

UPCOMING

HNK Gorica

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.3% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-12.8%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.5%1-17.0%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.1%2-18.8%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.9%3-17.3%3-22.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.5%4+-18.3%4+-22.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.3% 84.7% 1.18 -12.3%

Draw 16.8% 15.6% 6.40 +4.5%

Away win 8.9% 8.3% 12.00 +4.1%

Over 2.5 61.0% 73.5% 1.36 -17.0%

Over 3.5 37.9% 51.8% 1.93 -26.9%

BTTS 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Home O1.5 66.3% 83.3% 1.20 -20.4%

Away O1.5 18.8% 20.0% 5.00 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -7.0%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 74% / xG 2.5-0.7 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 3–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 1–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Zagreb2.5

HNK Gorica0.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO ZAGREB · PPG 2.47

HNK GORICA · PPG 0.81

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.83 for Home, form 2.47 vs 0.81 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Zagreb (H) 74.3%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -12.3%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +4.5%

HNK Gorica (A) 8.9%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Zagreb face HNK Gorica in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 74% chance, the draw 17% and HNK Gorica 9%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.7 for HNK Gorica (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Zagreb are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 0.81 for HNK Gorica. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.5%.

Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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