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Vukovar vs HNK Cibalia Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:45

Vukovar

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLD ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

HNK Cibalia

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.2%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.9%1-112.3%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.5%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 48.8% 2.05 -7.3%

Draw 24.8% 33.3% 3.00 -15.4%

Away win 30.0% 30.3% 3.30 -1.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.6% 3.50 +10.6%

BTTS 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 46.5% 2.15 -14.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 32.3% 3.10 +2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -11.2%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vukovar1.5

HNK Cibalia1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VUKOVAR · PPG 1.50

HNK CIBALIA · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vukovar (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -7.3%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.4%

HNK Cibalia (A) 30.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vukovar face HNK Cibalia in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vukovar a 45% chance, the draw 25% and HNK Cibalia 30%, so Vukovar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Vukovar and 1.1 for HNK Cibalia (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vukovar are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.25 for HNK Cibalia. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Vukovar vs HNK Cibalia Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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