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Sesvete vs Segesta Sisak Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Sesvete

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WLL ··

UPCOMING

Segesta Sisak

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLD ··

// Model verdict

Home 46% chance

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+20.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-17.3%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-111.6%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.3%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-14.9%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 43.5% 2.30 +20.8%

Draw 24.8% 34.5% 2.90 -16.9%

Away win 22.7% 35.7% 2.80 -21.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 48.1% 2.08 +4.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Home O1.5 47.6% 42.0% 2.38 +13.3%

Away O1.5 23.5% 36.4% 2.75 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.6%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 2–0 11.6%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sesvete1.6

Segesta Sisak0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SESVETE · PPG 1.70

SEGESTA SISAK · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

46%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sesvete (H) 52.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +20.8%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -16.9%

Segesta Sisak (A) 22.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sesvete face Segesta Sisak in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sesvete a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Segesta Sisak 23%, so Sesvete are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sesvete and 0.8 for Segesta Sisak (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sesvete are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.25 for Segesta Sisak. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +13.3%.

Sesvete vs Segesta Sisak Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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