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Dugopolje vs Mladost Ždralovi Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Dugopolje

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

DWD ··

UPCOMING

Mladost Ždralovi

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.0%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.5%1-112.2%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.3%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.9%3-14.7%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 43.5% 2.30 +7.4%

Draw 25.6% 34.7% 2.88 -15.8%

Away win 27.7% 35.7% 2.80 -13.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 46.5% 2.15 +8.8%

Over 3.5 29.7% 25.0% 4.00 +11.3%

BTTS 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Home O1.5 40.7% 42.0% 2.38 -3.1%

Away O1.5 27.9% 36.2% 2.76 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dugopolje1.5

Mladost Ždralovi1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DUGOPOLJE · PPG 1.65

MLADOST ŽDRALOVI · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dugopolje (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +7.4%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -15.8%

Mladost Ždralovi (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dugopolje face Mladost Ždralovi in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dugopolje a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Mladost Ždralovi 28%, so Dugopolje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Dugopolje and 1.0 for Mladost Ždralovi (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dugopolje are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.75 for Mladost Ždralovi. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.3%.

Dugopolje vs Mladost Ždralovi Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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