Today / Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 / Torino U20 vs Cremonese U20

Torino U20 vs Cremonese U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Monday, April 13, 2026

Torino U20

PPG 1.31 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cremonese U20

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-16.4%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.0%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-15.5%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.6% 58.8% 1.70 +1.3%

Draw 23.5% 29.4% 3.40 -20.1%

Away win 16.9% 25.0% 4.00 -32.4%

Over 2.5 46.0% — — —

Over 3.5 24.6% — — —

BTTS 44.9% 59.9% 1.67 -25.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.9%

H 60% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.9%

#2 2–0 12.0%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torino U201.7

Cremonese U200.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TORINO U20 · PPG 1.31

CREMONESE U20 · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Torino U20 (H) 59.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +1.3%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -20.1%

Cremonese U20 (A) 16.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -32.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torino U20 face Cremonese U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torino U20 a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Cremonese U20 17%, so Torino U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Torino U20 and 0.8 for Cremonese U20 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torino U20 are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.75 for Cremonese U20. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.3%.

Torino U20 vs Cremonese U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 Predictions