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Cagliari U20 vs Napoli U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 38 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 09:00

Cagliari U20

PPG 1.39 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Napoli U20

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-18.2%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.6%1-112.3%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.2%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.6%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 50.0% 2.00 -2.8%

Draw 26.7% 30.8% 3.25 -7.9%

Away win 24.7% 31.3% 3.20 -12.6%

Over 2.5 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

Over 3.5 25.6% 31.8% 3.14 -11.8%

BTTS 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cagliari U201.5

Napoli U201.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CAGLIARI U20 · PPG 1.39

NAPOLI U20 · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.39) > Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Cagliari U20 (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -2.8%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.9%

Napoli U20 (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cagliari U20 face Napoli U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cagliari U20 a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Napoli U20 25%, so Cagliari U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Cagliari U20 and 1.1 for Napoli U20 (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cagliari U20 are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 0.83 for Napoli U20. This match finished 1-1.

Cagliari U20 vs Napoli U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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