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Fiorentina U20 vs Cremonese U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 11:00

Fiorentina U20

PPG 2.22 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cremonese U20

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.22) vs P(Home)=53.5%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-14.9%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.9%1-19.7%1-23.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.4%3-16.3%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-14.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% — — —

Draw 26.5% — — —

Away win 20.0% — — —

Over 2.5 53.1% — — —

Over 3.5 29.2% — — —

BTTS 52.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.2%

H 54% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.8%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fiorentina U202.0

Cremonese U200.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FIORENTINA U20 · PPG 2.22

CREMONESE U20 · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.22) vs P(Home)=53.5%

Win probability 1X2

Fiorentina U20 (H) 53.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cremonese U20 (A) 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fiorentina U20 face Cremonese U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fiorentina U20 a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Cremonese U20 20%, so Fiorentina U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Fiorentina U20 and 0.8 for Cremonese U20 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fiorentina U20 are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 0.67 for Cremonese U20. This match finished 6-1.

Fiorentina U20 vs Cremonese U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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