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Lecce U20 vs Fiorentina U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:00

Lecce U20

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Fiorentina U20

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-18.4%0-26.7%0-33.5%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.2%1-111.4%1-29.0%1-34.8%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.8%2-17.7%2-26.1%2-33.2%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.2%3-13.4%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 31.3% 3.20 +10.7%

Draw 24.8% 28.2% 3.55 -7.2%

Away win 40.6% 52.4% 1.91 -22.4%

Over 2.5 59.1% 63.7% 1.57 -7.2%

Over 3.5 33.8% 39.1% 2.56 -13.5%

BTTS 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.7%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lecce U201.3

Fiorentina U201.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LECCE U20 · PPG 1.50

FIORENTINA U20 · PPG 1.39

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.39)

Win probability 1X2

Lecce U20 (H) 34.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +10.7%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.2%

Fiorentina U20 (A) 40.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lecce U20 face Fiorentina U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lecce U20 a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Fiorentina U20 41%, so Fiorentina U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lecce U20 and 1.6 for Fiorentina U20 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lecce U20 are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.39 for Fiorentina U20. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Lecce U20 vs Fiorentina U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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