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Sassuolo U20 vs Frosinone U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 09:00

Sassuolo U20

PPG 1.28 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Frosinone U20

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.3%0-23.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.8%1-110.2%1-25.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.5%3-16.3%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.7%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 64.5% 1.55 -19.9%

Draw 24.0% 26.3% 3.80 -5.3%

Away win 24.3% 21.7% 4.60 +7.1%

Over 2.5 60.3% 68.0% 1.47 -11.4%

Over 3.5 37.1% 45.5% 2.20 -18.4%

BTTS 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sassuolo U201.9

Frosinone U201.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SASSUOLO U20 · PPG 1.28

FROSINONE U20 · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.28) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Sassuolo U20 (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -19.9%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.3%

Frosinone U20 (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sassuolo U20 face Frosinone U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sassuolo U20 a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Frosinone U20 24%, so Sassuolo U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Sassuolo U20 and 1.2 for Frosinone U20 (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sassuolo U20 are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 0.67 for Frosinone U20. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Sassuolo U20 vs Frosinone U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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