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Monza U20 vs Parma U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Regular Season - 38 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:00

Monza U20

PPG 1.06 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Parma U20

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-114.8%0-29.8%0-34.3%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.2%2-15.6%2-23.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.2%3-11.6%3-21.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% 24.4% 4.10 +9.6%

Draw 28.5% 28.6% 3.50 -0.1%

Away win 43.2% 58.8% 1.70 -26.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 58.8% 1.70 -21.5%

Over 3.5 17.9% 36.0% 2.78 -30.1%

BTTS 49.2% 59.9% 1.67 -17.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.2%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0✓ 11.2%

#3 0–1 14.8%

#4 0–2 9.8%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monza U200.9

Parma U201.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MONZA U20 · PPG 1.06

PARMA U20 · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.83) vs Home AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Monza U20 (H) 28.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +9.6%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.1%

Parma U20 (A) 43.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monza U20 face Parma U20 in Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monza U20 a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Parma U20 43%, so Parma U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Monza U20 and 1.3 for Parma U20 (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monza U20 are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.83 for Parma U20. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Monza U20 vs Parma U20 Prediction— Italy - Campionato Primavera - 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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