Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse Arnhem Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Netherlands - Eerste Divisie Monday, April 13, 2026 —

Jong Utrecht PPG 1.53

VS PENDING

Vitesse Arnhem PPG 1.53

Home· +7.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong Utrecht face Vitesse Arnhem in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong Utrecht a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Vitesse Arnhem 35%, so Jong Utrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Jong Utrecht and 1.5 for Vitesse Arnhem (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.53 for Vitesse Arnhem. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.1%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.2%

Odds: 2.60 EV: +7.1%

Draw 23.5%

Odds: 3.70 EV: -13.1%

Away 35.3%

Odds: 2.45 EV: -13.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.4% Odds: 1.60 -1.8%

Over 3.5 39.1% Odds: 2.45 -4.2%

BTTS 63.1% Odds: 1.48 -6.6%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 2-1

3rd 1-2

4th 1-0

5th 2-2

Expected Goals (xG)

Jong Utrecht

1.65

Vitesse Arnhem

1.52

Model SuggestionBTTS -6.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -6.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+7.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 58%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away GOOD (1.53)