Today / Netherlands - Eerste Divisie / Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse Arnhem

Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse Arnhem Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Monday, April 13, 2026

Jong Utrecht

PPG 1.53 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vitesse Arnhem

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.4%0-24.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.9%1-110.5%1-28.0%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.2%3-14.8%3-23.6%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.9%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 38.5% 2.60 +7.1%

Draw 23.5% 27.0% 3.70 -13.1%

Away win 35.3% 40.8% 2.45 -13.5%

Over 2.5 61.4% 62.5% 1.60 -1.8%

Over 3.5 39.1% 40.8% 2.45 -4.2%

BTTS 63.1% 67.6% 1.48 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 41% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong Utrecht1.7

Vitesse Arnhem1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.1%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG UTRECHT · PPG 1.53

VITESSE ARNHEM · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Jong Utrecht (H) 41.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +7.1%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.1%

Vitesse Arnhem (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong Utrecht face Vitesse Arnhem in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong Utrecht a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Vitesse Arnhem 35%, so Jong Utrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Jong Utrecht and 1.5 for Vitesse Arnhem (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.53 for Vitesse Arnhem. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.1%.

Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse Arnhem Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie Predictions