FC Emmen vs De Graafschap Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Netherlands - Eerste Divisie Regular Season - 38 De Oude Meerdijk· Emmen Friday, April 24, 2026 18:00

FC Emmen PPG 1.44

1-0 MISS

De Graafschap PPG 1.67

Over3.5· +19.5% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Emmen face De Graafschap in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Emmen a 27% chance, the draw 19% and De Graafschap 54%, so De Graafschap are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Emmen and 2.5 for De Graafschap (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Emmen are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.67 for De Graafschap. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 26.9%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -19.3%

Draw 18.9%

Odds: 3.85 EV: -27.2%

Away 54.2%

Odds: 2.05 EV: +11.1%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 80.0% Odds: 1.38 +10.4%

Over 3.5 61.9% Odds: 1.93 +19.5%

BTTS 76.2% Odds: 1.33 +1.4%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2 ✘

2nd 2-2 ✘

3rd 1-3 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 2-3 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Emmen

1.77

De Graafschap

2.51

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +10.4% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+19.5%)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away GOOD (1.67)