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FC Emmen vs De Graafschap Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 38 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:00

FC Emmen

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

De Graafschap

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 75% chance

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 80.0% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.5%0-24.4%0-33.7%0-4+4.2%1 1-02.5%1-16.2%1-27.7%1-36.5%1-4+7.4%2 2-02.2%2-15.4%2-26.8%2-35.7%2-4+6.5%3 3-01.3%3-13.2%3-24.0%3-33.4%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.1%4+-22.7%4+-32.2%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.9% 33.3% 3.00 -19.3%

Draw 18.9% 26.0% 3.85 -27.2%

Away win 54.2% 48.8% 2.05 +11.1%

Over 2.5 80.0% 72.5% 1.38 +10.4%

Over 3.5 61.9% 51.8% 1.93 +19.5%

BTTS 76.2% 75.2% 1.33 +1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob76.2%

A 54% / xG 1.8-2.5 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 76%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.7%

#2 2–2 6.8%

#3 1–3 6.5%

#4 1–1 6.2%

#5 2–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Emmen1.8

De Graafschap2.5

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.0% · O3.5 PROB 61.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC EMMEN · PPG 1.44

DE GRAAFSCHAP · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

75%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

FC Emmen (H) 26.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.3%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -27.2%

De Graafschap (A) 54.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Emmen face De Graafschap in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Emmen a 27% chance, the draw 19% and De Graafschap 54%, so De Graafschap are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Emmen and 2.5 for De Graafschap (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Emmen are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.67 for De Graafschap. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 1-0.

FC Emmen vs De Graafschap Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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