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FC Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 38 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:00

FC Den Bosch

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

ADO Den Haag

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 72% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-15.6%0-27.4%0-36.5%0-4+8.0%1 1-02.6%1-16.8%1-29.0%1-37.9%1-4+9.8%2 2-01.6%2-14.1%2-25.5%2-34.8%2-4+5.9%3 3-00.6%3-11.7%3-22.2%3-31.9%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.5% 12.2% 8.20 +27.1%

Draw 16.8% 18.5% 5.40 -9.3%

Away win 67.7% 76.9% 1.30 -12.0%

Over 2.5 73.9% 71.4% 1.40 +3.5%

Over 3.5 53.6% 50.0% 2.00 +7.2%

BTTS 65.3% 61.7% 1.62 +5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 78%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob65.3%

A 68% / xG 1.2-2.6 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.0%

#2 1–3✓ 7.9%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 1–1 6.8%

#5 0–3 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Den Bosch1.2

ADO Den Haag2.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FC DEN BOSCH · PPG 1.67

ADO DEN HAAG · PPG 2.22

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

72%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.22) vs Home GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

FC Den Bosch (H) 15.5%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV +27.1%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -9.3%

ADO Den Haag (A) 67.7%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Den Bosch face ADO Den Haag in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Den Bosch a 16% chance, the draw 17% and ADO Den Haag 68%, so ADO Den Haag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FC Den Bosch and 2.6 for ADO Den Haag (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Den Bosch are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.22 for ADO Den Haag. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 1-3.

FC Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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