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ADO Den Haag vs RKC Waalwijk Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 37 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:00

ADO Den Haag

PPG 2.39 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

RKC Waalwijk

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.8%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.4%1-19.8%1-25.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.7%3-16.6%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.3%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 58.8% 1.70 -2.6%

Draw 21.3% 23.8% 4.20 -10.5%

Away win 21.4% 23.8% 4.20 -10.1%

Over 2.5 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Over 3.5 39.2% 44.4% 2.25 -11.8%

BTTS 59.5% 66.7% 1.50 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.5%

H 57% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 1–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADO Den Haag2.0

RKC Waalwijk1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ADO DEN HAAG · PPG 2.39

RKC WAALWIJK · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.39) vs P(Home)=57.3%

Win probability 1X2

ADO Den Haag (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -2.6%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -10.5%

RKC Waalwijk (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

ADO Den Haag face RKC Waalwijk in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADO Den Haag a 57% chance, the draw 21% and RKC Waalwijk 21%, so ADO Den Haag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for ADO Den Haag and 1.2 for RKC Waalwijk (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.39 points per game versus 1.50 for RKC Waalwijk. This match finished 5-1.

ADO Den Haag vs RKC Waalwijk Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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