ADO Den Haag vs RKC Waalwijk Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Netherlands - Eerste Divisie Regular Season - 37 WerkTalent Stadion· Den Haag Friday, April 17, 2026 18:00

ADO Den Haag PPG 2.39

5-1 MISS

RKC Waalwijk PPG 1.50

Home· -2.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

ADO Den Haag face RKC Waalwijk in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADO Den Haag a 57% chance, the draw 21% and RKC Waalwijk 21%, so ADO Den Haag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for ADO Den Haag and 1.2 for RKC Waalwijk (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.39 points per game versus 1.50 for RKC Waalwijk. This match finished 5-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 57.3%

Odds: 1.70 EV: -2.6%

Draw 21.3%

Odds: 4.20 EV: -10.5%

Away 21.4%

Odds: 4.20 EV: -10.1%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.5% Odds: 1.50 -7.8%

Over 3.5 39.2% Odds: 2.25 -11.8%

BTTS 59.5% Odds: 1.50 -10.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

ADO Den Haag

2.02

RKC Waalwijk

1.16

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -7.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -7.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 58%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.39) vs P(Home)=57.3%