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FC Dordrecht vs Willem II Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 38 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:00

FC Dordrecht

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Willem II

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-111.8%0-28.8%0-34.4%0-4+2.3%1 1-08.2%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.3%2-16.4%2-24.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.5%3-12.2%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.3% 37.0% 2.70 -29.0%

Draw 25.8% 28.2% 3.55 -8.4%

Away win 47.8% 41.7% 2.40 +14.7%

Over 2.5 46.9% 62.5% 1.60 -25.0%

Over 3.5 25.3% 40.8% 2.45 -38.0%

BTTS 50.4% 69.0% 1.45 -26.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob50.4%

A 48% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 11.8%

#3 1–2✓ 9.2%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Dordrecht1.0

Willem II1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FC DORDRECHT · PPG 1.28

WILLEM II · PPG 1.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

63%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.28) vs Away GOOD (1.72)

Win probability 1X2

FC Dordrecht (H) 26.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -29.0%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.4%

Willem II (A) 47.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Dordrecht face Willem II in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Dordrecht a 26% chance, the draw 26% and Willem II 48%, so Willem II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for FC Dordrecht and 1.5 for Willem II (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Dordrecht are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.72 for Willem II. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 1-2.

FC Dordrecht vs Willem II Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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