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Cambuur vs Vitesse Arnhem Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 38 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:00

Cambuur

PPG 2.28 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vitesse Arnhem

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.4%0-23.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.6%1-19.0%1-26.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.7%3-16.5%3-24.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.5%4+-23.8%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 48.8% 2.05 +9.9%

Draw 21.1% 25.0% 4.00 -15.6%

Away win 25.2% 33.9% 2.95 -25.7%

Over 2.5 67.0% 71.4% 1.40 -6.2%

Over 3.5 45.3% 50.0% 2.00 -9.4%

BTTS 65.4% 73.5% 1.36 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob65.4%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.4%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 1–0 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cambuur2.1

Vitesse Arnhem1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CAMBUUR · PPG 2.28

VITESSE ARNHEM · PPG 1.61

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

70%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.28) > Away GOOD (1.61)

Win probability 1X2

Cambuur (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +9.9%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -15.6%

Vitesse Arnhem (A) 25.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cambuur face Vitesse Arnhem in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cambuur a 54% chance, the draw 21% and Vitesse Arnhem 25%, so Cambuur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Cambuur and 1.4 for Vitesse Arnhem (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cambuur are averaging 2.28 points per game versus 1.61 for Vitesse Arnhem. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Cambuur vs Vitesse Arnhem Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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