Cambuur vs Vitesse Arnhem Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Netherlands - Eerste Divisie Regular Season - 38 Kooi Stadion· Leeuwarden Friday, April 24, 2026 18:00

Cambuur PPG 2.28

2-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Vitesse Arnhem PPG 1.61

Home· +9.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Cambuur face Vitesse Arnhem in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cambuur a 54% chance, the draw 21% and Vitesse Arnhem 25%, so Cambuur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Cambuur and 1.4 for Vitesse Arnhem (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cambuur are averaging 2.28 points per game versus 1.61 for Vitesse Arnhem. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 53.6%

Odds: 2.05 EV: +9.9%

Draw 21.1%

Odds: 4.00 EV: -15.6%

Away 25.2%

Odds: 2.95 EV: -25.7%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 67.0% Odds: 1.40 -6.2%

Over 3.5 45.3% Odds: 2.00 -9.4%

BTTS 65.4% Odds: 1.36 -11.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✔

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Cambuur

2.08

Vitesse Arnhem

1.38

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -6.2% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-6.2%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 58%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.28) > Away GOOD (1.61)