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RKC Waalwijk vs Jong PSV Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Regular Season - 38 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:00

RKC Waalwijk

PPG 1.56 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Jong PSV

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.2% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.3%0-23.0%0-31.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-04.0%1-17.3%1-26.6%1-34.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.3%2-17.9%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.1%3-15.7%3-25.2%3-33.2%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-15.2%4+-24.7%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 61.7% 1.62 -24.5%

Draw 20.4% 23.1% 4.33 -11.7%

Away win 33.0% 21.7% 4.60 +51.8%

Over 2.5 76.2% 72.5% 1.38 +5.2%

Over 3.5 56.7% 51.8% 1.93 +9.4%

BTTS 74.4% 72.5% 1.38 +2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob74.4%

H 47% / xG 2.2-1.8 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.9%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RKC Waalwijk2.2

Jong PSV1.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.2% · O3.5 PROB 56.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RKC WAALWIJK · PPG 1.56

JONG PSV · PPG 1.44

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

RKC Waalwijk (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -24.5%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -11.7%

Jong PSV (A) 33.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +51.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

RKC Waalwijk face Jong PSV in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RKC Waalwijk a 47% chance, the draw 20% and Jong PSV 33%, so RKC Waalwijk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for RKC Waalwijk and 1.8 for Jong PSV (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RKC Waalwijk are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.44 for Jong PSV. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +51.8%. This match finished 4-1.

RKC Waalwijk vs Jong PSV Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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