Jong AZ vs Roda JC Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Netherlands - Eerste Divisie Regular Season - 38 AFAS Trainingscomplex· Wijdewormer Friday, April 24, 2026 18:00

Jong AZ PPG 0.61

2-0 MISS

Roda JC PPG 2.00

Away· +57.0% 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong AZ face Roda JC in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong AZ a 25% chance, the draw 20% and Roda JC 55%, so Roda JC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Jong AZ and 2.3 for Roda JC (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong AZ are averaging 0.61 points per game versus 2.00 for Roda JC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +57.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 25.4%

Odds: 2.15 EV: -45.4%

Draw 20.1%

Odds: 3.90 EV: -21.6%

Away 54.5%

Odds: 2.88 EV: +57.0%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 72.6% Odds: 1.42 +3.1%

Over 3.5 52.0% Odds: 2.05 +6.6%

BTTS 69.8% Odds: 1.36 -5.1%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-2 ✘

4th 1-3 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Jong AZ

1.51

Roda JC

2.26

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +3.1% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Away(+57.0%)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.61)