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Jong AZ vs Roda JC Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Regular Season - 38 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:00

Jong AZ

PPG 0.61 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Roda JC

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-15.2%0-25.9%0-34.4%0-4+4.2%1 1-03.5%1-17.9%1-28.9%1-36.7%1-4+6.4%2 2-02.6%2-15.9%2-26.7%2-35.1%2-4+4.8%3 3-01.3%3-13.0%3-23.4%3-32.5%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.6%4+-21.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% 46.5% 2.15 -45.4%

Draw 20.1% 25.6% 3.90 -21.6%

Away win 54.5% 34.7% 2.88 +57.0%

Over 2.5 72.6% 70.4% 1.42 +3.1%

Over 3.5 52.0% 48.8% 2.05 +6.6%

BTTS 69.8% 73.5% 1.36 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob69.8%

A 55% / xG 1.5-2.3 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 1–3 6.7%

#5 2–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong AZ1.5

Roda JC2.3

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG AZ · PPG 0.61

RODA JC · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.61)

Win probability 1X2

Jong AZ (H) 25.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -45.4%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -21.6%

Roda JC (A) 54.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +57.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong AZ face Roda JC in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong AZ a 25% chance, the draw 20% and Roda JC 55%, so Roda JC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Jong AZ and 2.3 for Roda JC (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong AZ are averaging 0.61 points per game versus 2.00 for Roda JC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +57.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Jong AZ vs Roda JC Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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