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Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 38 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:00

Jong Ajax

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Jong Utrecht

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 71% chance

Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.7%0-25.1%0-33.0%0-4+2.0%1 1-05.3%1-19.5%1-28.4%1-35.0%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.0%2-34.1%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.5%3-14.4%3-23.9%3-32.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.6%4+-22.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 35.7% 2.80 +1.9%

Draw 22.5% 26.3% 3.80 -14.5%

Away win 41.1% 44.4% 2.25 -7.5%

Over 2.5 66.8% 69.0% 1.45 -3.1%

Over 3.5 45.1% 47.6% 2.10 -5.3%

BTTS 67.4% 72.5% 1.38 -7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob67.4%

A 41% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong Ajax1.7

Jong Utrecht1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.1%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG AJAX · PPG 1.11

JONG UTRECHT · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

71%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.11) > Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Jong Ajax (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +1.9%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -14.5%

Jong Utrecht (A) 41.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong Ajax face Jong Utrecht in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong Ajax a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Jong Utrecht 41%, so Jong Utrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Jong Ajax and 1.8 for Jong Utrecht (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong Ajax are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.78 for Jong Utrecht. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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