Jong Ajax vs Jong Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Netherlands - Eerste Divisie Regular Season - 38 Sportcomplex De Toekomst· Ouder-Amstel Friday, April 24, 2026 18:00

Jong Ajax PPG 1.11

0-2 MISS

Jong Utrecht PPG 0.78

Home· +1.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong Ajax face Jong Utrecht in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong Ajax a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Jong Utrecht 41%, so Jong Utrecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Jong Ajax and 1.8 for Jong Utrecht (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong Ajax are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.78 for Jong Utrecht. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.4%

Odds: 2.80 EV: +1.9%

Draw 22.5%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -14.5%

Away 41.1%

Odds: 2.25 EV: -7.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 66.8% Odds: 1.45 -3.1%

Over 3.5 45.1% Odds: 2.10 -5.3%

BTTS 67.4% Odds: 1.38 -7.0%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Jong Ajax

1.67

Jong Utrecht

1.78

Model SuggestionBTTS -7.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -7.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+1.9%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 58%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.11) > Away POOR (0.78)