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FC Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Regular Season - 34 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 18:00

FC Den Bosch

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Jong Utrecht

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.1% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a clear edge.

+11.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.5%0-23.2%0-31.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-04.2%1-17.5%1-26.8%1-34.1%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-03.2%3-15.7%3-25.1%3-33.1%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-15.0%4+-24.5%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 54.1% 1.85 -14.7%

Draw 20.7% 25.3% 3.95 -18.2%

Away win 33.3% 27.4% 3.65 +21.6%

Over 2.5 75.1% 67.6% 1.48 +11.2%

Over 3.5 55.2% 45.5% 2.20 +21.4%

BTTS 73.5% 69.0% 1.45 +6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob73.5%

H 46% / xG 2.1-1.8 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 1–1✓ 7.5%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Den Bosch2.1

Jong Utrecht1.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.1% · O3.5 PROB 55.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC DEN BOSCH · PPG 1.71

JONG UTRECHT · PPG 0.76

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=46.1%

Win probability 1X2

FC Den Bosch (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.7%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -18.2%

Jong Utrecht (A) 33.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Den Bosch face Jong Utrecht in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Den Bosch a 46% chance, the draw 21% and Jong Utrecht 33%, so FC Den Bosch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for FC Den Bosch and 1.8 for Jong Utrecht (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Den Bosch are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.76 for Jong Utrecht. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.6%. This match finished 1-1.

FC Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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