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FC Eindhoven vs Helmond Sport Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Matchday 38 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:00

FC Eindhoven

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Helmond Sport

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.3%0-23.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.7%1-110.9%1-26.9%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.4%3-15.5%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 54.1% 1.85 -9.7%

Draw 23.6% 26.7% 3.75 -11.5%

Away win 27.7% 27.0% 3.70 +2.5%

Over 2.5 57.5% 61.7% 1.62 -6.9%

Over 3.5 35.1% 39.2% 2.55 -10.5%

BTTS 58.9% 64.5% 1.55 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 32%

ROI -44.4%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.9%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0✓ 8.7%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Eindhoven1.7

Helmond Sport1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.5% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FC EINDHOVEN · PPG 1.50

HELMOND SPORT · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=48.8%

Win probability 1X2

FC Eindhoven (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -9.7%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.5%

Helmond Sport (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Eindhoven face Helmond Sport in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Eindhoven a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Helmond Sport 28%, so FC Eindhoven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FC Eindhoven and 1.3 for Helmond Sport (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.56 for Helmond Sport. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 1-0.

FC Eindhoven vs Helmond Sport Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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