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Jong AZ vs Jong PSV Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Monday, April 13, 2026

Jong AZ

PPG 0.65 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jong PSV

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.3%0-24.2%0-32.7%0-4+2.0%1 1-04.2%1-18.1%1-27.8%1-35.0%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.9%2-17.6%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.5%3-14.7%3-24.5%3-32.9%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.4%4+-23.2%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 55.6% 1.80 -31.1%

Draw 21.3% 23.8% 4.20 -10.5%

Away win 40.4% 27.0% 3.70 +49.5%

Over 2.5 73.0% 75.2% 1.33 -2.9%

Over 3.5 52.5% 54.6% 1.83 -3.9%

BTTS 72.2% 76.9% 1.30 -6.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob72.2%

A 40% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong AZ1.9

Jong PSV1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG AZ · PPG 0.65

JONG PSV · PPG 1.35

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.35) vs Home POOR (0.65)

Win probability 1X2

Jong AZ (H) 38.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -31.1%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -10.5%

Jong PSV (A) 40.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +49.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong AZ face Jong PSV in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong AZ a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Jong PSV 40%, so Jong PSV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Jong AZ and 1.9 for Jong PSV (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong AZ are averaging 0.65 points per game versus 1.35 for Jong PSV. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +49.5%.

Jong AZ vs Jong PSV Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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