Jong AZ vs Jong PSV Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Netherlands - Eerste Divisie Monday, April 13, 2026 —

Jong AZ PPG 0.65

VS PENDING

Jong PSV PPG 1.35

Away· +49.5% 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong AZ face Jong PSV in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong AZ a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Jong PSV 40%, so Jong PSV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Jong AZ and 1.9 for Jong PSV (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong AZ are averaging 0.65 points per game versus 1.35 for Jong PSV. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +49.5%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.3%

Odds: 1.80 EV: -31.1%

Draw 21.3%

Odds: 4.20 EV: -10.5%

Away 40.4%

Odds: 3.70 EV: +49.5%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 73.0% Odds: 1.33 -2.9%

Over 3.5 52.5% Odds: 1.83 -3.9%

BTTS 72.2% Odds: 1.30 -6.1%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 1-2

3rd 2-1

4th 2-2

5th 1-3

Expected Goals (xG)

Jong AZ

1.87

Jong PSV

1.92

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -2.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -2.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+49.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 58%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 50% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.35) vs Home POOR (0.65)