Today / Netherlands - Eerste Divisie / Jong Ajax vs TOP Oss

Jong Ajax vs TOP Oss Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Monday, April 13, 2026

Jong Ajax

PPG 1.18 · HOME

UPCOMING

TOP Oss

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.1%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.7%1-111.6%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.4%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.2%3-15.1%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 46.5% 2.15 +1.7%

Draw 24.5% 26.0% 3.85 -5.7%

Away win 28.2% 34.5% 2.90 -18.2%

Over 2.5 53.6% 66.7% 1.50 -19.6%

Over 3.5 31.3% 44.4% 2.25 -29.6%

BTTS 56.1% 70.4% 1.42 -20.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -32.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.1%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 9.7%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 0–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong Ajax1.6

TOP Oss1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG AJAX · PPG 1.18

TOP OSS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.18), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Jong Ajax (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +1.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.7%

TOP Oss (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong Ajax face TOP Oss in Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong Ajax a 47% chance, the draw 25% and TOP Oss 28%, so Jong Ajax are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Jong Ajax and 1.2 for TOP Oss (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong Ajax are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.00 for TOP Oss. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.7%.

Jong Ajax vs TOP Oss Prediction— Netherlands - Eerste Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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