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FC Fredericia vs Esbjerg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

FC Fredericia

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDL

UPCOMING

Esbjerg

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.8%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.2%1-110.7%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-16.1%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.3%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 67.1% 1.49 -20.6%

Draw 23.9% 22.5% 4.45 +3.8%

Away win 22.8% 19.6% 5.10 +9.8%

Over 2.5 59.6% 71.4% 1.40 -16.6%

Over 3.5 35.9% 50.0% 2.00 -28.2%

BTTS 55.0% 69.0% 1.45 -20.3%

Home O1.5 55.8% 72.5% 1.38 -23.0%

Away O1.5 32.5% 36.4% 2.75 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 29.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.0%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Fredericia1.9

Esbjerg1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC FREDERICIA · PPG 1.56

ESBJERG · PPG 1.24

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Fredericia (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV -20.6%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +3.8%

Esbjerg (A) 22.8%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Fredericia face Esbjerg in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Fredericia a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Esbjerg 23%, so FC Fredericia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FC Fredericia and 1.0 for Esbjerg (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Fredericia are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.24 for Esbjerg. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%.

FC Fredericia vs Esbjerg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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