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AB Copenhagen vs Aalborg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

AB Copenhagen

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

UPCOMING

Aalborg

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-18.8%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.6%1-112.6%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-19.0%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.3%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 44.6% 2.24 +4.2%

Draw 25.9% 28.2% 3.55 -4.8%

Away win 27.6% 36.2% 2.76 -14.3%

Over 2.5 50.6% 62.5% 1.60 -19.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

BTTS 52.9% 67.6% 1.48 -21.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 51.8% 1.93 -23.0%

Away O1.5 32.9% 46.5% 2.15 -29.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 29.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AB Copenhagen1.4

Aalborg1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AB COPENHAGEN · PPG 1.36

AALBORG · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AB Copenhagen (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV +4.2%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.8%

Aalborg (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

AB Copenhagen face Aalborg in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AB Copenhagen a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Aalborg 28%, so AB Copenhagen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for AB Copenhagen and 1.1 for Aalborg (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AB Copenhagen are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.32 for Aalborg.

AB Copenhagen vs Aalborg Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Denmark - 1. Division Predictions