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Vilzing vs Schwaben A. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Bayern - 32 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 17:00

Vilzing

PPG 1.53 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Schwaben A.

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.0%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.7%1-111.6%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.6%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.9%3-15.3%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 52.4% 1.91 -6.8%

Draw 28.0% 27.0% 3.70 +3.6%

Away win 23.2% 30.3% 3.30 -23.4%

Over 2.5 51.4% 59.9% 1.67 -14.2%

Over 3.5 29.3% 37.0% 2.70 -20.9%

BTTS 55.2% 63.7% 1.57 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -17.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.2%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0✓ 10.7%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vilzing1.6

Schwaben A.1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VILZING · PPG 1.53

SCHWABEN A. · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Vilzing (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -6.8%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +3.6%

Schwaben A. (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vilzing face Schwaben A. in Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vilzing a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Schwaben A. 23%, so Vilzing are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Vilzing and 1.1 for Schwaben A. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vilzing are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.20 for Schwaben A.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Vilzing vs Schwaben A. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Bayern

Match Preview & Prediction

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