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Kristiansund BK vs Tromso Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:15

Kristiansund BK

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLD

UPCOMING

Tromso

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-110.8%0-28.3%0-34.3%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.8%1-112.1%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.4%2-16.7%2-25.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 21.7% 4.60 +38.9%

Draw 24.5% 27.0% 3.70 -5.6%

Away win 45.3% 60.6% 1.65 -25.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 32.5% 36.4% 2.75 -10.6%

BTTS 55.9% 60.6% 1.65 -7.8%

Home O1.5 31.1% 29.4% 3.40 +5.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 59.9% 1.67 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 10.8%

#4 0–2 8.3%

#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kristiansund BK1.1

Tromso1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KRISTIANSUND BK · PPG 1.38

TROMSO · PPG 1.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kristiansund BK (H) 30.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +38.9%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.6%

Tromso (A) 45.3%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kristiansund BK face Tromso in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kristiansund BK a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Tromso 45%, so Tromso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kristiansund BK and 1.5 for Tromso (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.75 for Tromso. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +24.1%.

Kristiansund BK vs Tromso Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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