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Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Rosenborg

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

UPCOMING

Ham-Kam

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.1%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.7%1-18.9%1-24.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.0%3-17.2%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-16.7%4+-23.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 73.5% 1.36 -22.1%

Draw 21.3% 20.0% 5.00 +3.9%

Away win 21.5% 13.5% 7.40 +35.5%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 40.2% 43.5% 2.30 -7.5%

BTTS 59.0% 57.8% 1.73 +2.1%

Home O1.5 66.0% 72.5% 1.38 -8.9%

Away O1.5 32.2% 25.3% 3.95 +27.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.0%

H 57% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosenborg2.2

Ham-Kam1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSENBORG · PPG 1.89

HAM-KAM · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rosenborg (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -22.1%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.9%

Ham-Kam (A) 21.5%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +35.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosenborg face Ham-Kam in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosenborg a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Ham-Kam 22%, so Rosenborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Rosenborg and 1.0 for Ham-Kam (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosenborg are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.67 for Ham-Kam. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +37.3%.

Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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