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Brann vs Lillestrom Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Brann

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

UPCOMING

Lillestrom

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.3%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.6%1-110.3%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.4%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.8%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 57.1% 1.75 -3.2%

Draw 22.4% 26.3% 3.80 -8.9%

Away win 22.3% 26.7% 3.75 -9.8%

Over 2.5 59.6% 66.7% 1.50 -10.6%

Over 3.5 36.4% 45.5% 2.20 -19.9%

BTTS 55.4% 69.4% 1.44 -20.2%

Home O1.5 55.8% 61.7% 1.62 -9.6%

Away O1.5 32.5% 42.0% 2.38 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 55% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brann1.9

Lillestrom1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BRANN · PPG 1.67

LILLESTROM · PPG 1.56

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brann (H) 55.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -3.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.9%

Lillestrom (A) 22.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brann face Lillestrom in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brann a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Lillestrom 22%, so Brann are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Brann and 1.1 for Lillestrom (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brann are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.56 for Lillestrom.

Brann vs Lillestrom Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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