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Molde vs KFUM Oslo Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Molde

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

UPCOMING

KFUM Oslo

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 72% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.3%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.4%1-16.3%1-23.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.9%2-18.8%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-18.2%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-011.5%4+-111.3%4+-25.5%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.9% 76.9% 1.30 -14.3%

Draw 15.9% 20.0% 5.00 -12.3%

Away win 18.2% 12.5% 8.00 +27.4%

Over 2.5 68.4% 73.5% 1.36 -7.0%

Over 3.5 45.6% 54.6% 1.83 -16.6%

BTTS 61.5% 62.5% 1.60 -1.6%

Home O1.5 66.6% 78.1% 1.28 -14.8%

Away O1.5 28.5% 26.7% 3.75 +4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.5%

H 66% / xG 2.8-1.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 8.9%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 3–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Molde2.8

KFUM Oslo1.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MOLDE · PPG 2.11

KFUM OSLO · PPG 0.62

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

72%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.81 for Home, form 2.11 vs 0.62 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Molde (H) 65.9%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -14.3%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -12.3%

KFUM Oslo (A) 18.2%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Molde face KFUM Oslo in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Molde a 66% chance, the draw 16% and KFUM Oslo 18%, so Molde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Molde and 1.0 for KFUM Oslo (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Molde are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.62 for KFUM Oslo. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.1%.

Molde vs KFUM Oslo Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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