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Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Sarpsborg 08 FF

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLD

UPCOMING

Valerenga

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.4%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.4%1-110.3%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.7%3-16.3%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.7%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 52.4% 1.91 -0.7%

Draw 22.8% 26.3% 3.80 -8.0%

Away win 25.2% 30.8% 3.25 -10.9%

Over 2.5 61.6% 71.4% 1.40 -13.8%

Over 3.5 40.2% 50.0% 2.00 -19.6%

BTTS 61.5% 71.4% 1.40 -13.9%

Home O1.5 55.8% 63.7% 1.57 -12.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 47.6% 2.10 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarpsborg 08 FF1.9

Valerenga1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SARPSBORG 08 FF · PPG 1.75

VALERENGA · PPG 1.00

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sarpsborg 08 FF (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -0.7%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.0%

Valerenga (A) 25.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarpsborg 08 FF face Valerenga in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Valerenga 25%, so Sarpsborg 08 FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.1 for Valerenga (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Valerenga.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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