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Al Zulfi vs Al Diraiyah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Monday, April 13, 2026

Al Zulfi

PPG 1.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Diraiyah

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-110.8%0-29.1%0-35.1%0-4+3.1%1 1-06.9%1-111.5%1-29.7%1-35.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.6%2-16.1%2-25.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.3%3-12.2%3-21.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.0% 20.8% 4.80 +15.2%

Draw 24.2% 25.0% 4.00 -3.2%

Away win 51.7% 64.5% 1.55 -19.9%

Over 2.5 51.6% 63.7% 1.57 -19.0%

Over 3.5 29.4% 40.8% 2.45 -28.0%

BTTS 53.2% 62.5% 1.60 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob53.2%

A 52% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 0–1 10.8%

#3 1–2 9.7%

#4 0–2 9.1%

#5 1–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Zulfi1.1

Al Diraiyah1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ZULFI · PPG 1.36

AL DIRAIYAH · PPG 1.79

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.36) vs Away GOOD (1.79)

Win probability 1X2

Al Zulfi (H) 24.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +15.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.2%

Al Diraiyah (A) 51.7%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Zulfi face Al Diraiyah in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Zulfi a 24% chance, the draw 24% and Al Diraiyah 52%, so Al Diraiyah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Al Zulfi and 1.7 for Al Diraiyah (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Zulfi are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.79 for Al Diraiyah. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.2%.

Al Zulfi vs Al Diraiyah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 Predictions