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Sakaryaspor vs Erokspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Monday, April 13, 2026

Sakaryaspor

PPG 1.35 · HOME

UPCOMING

Erokspor

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-18.9%0-210.2%0-37.8%0-4+7.6%1 1-03.7%1-18.5%1-29.8%1-37.4%1-4+7.3%2 2-01.8%2-14.1%2-24.7%2-33.6%2-4+3.5%3 3-00.6%3-11.3%3-21.5%3-31.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.3% 17.9% 5.60 -19.9%

Draw 18.4% 24.4% 4.10 -24.6%

Away win 67.3% 67.6% 1.48 -0.4%

Over 2.5 63.0% 61.7% 1.62 +2.1%

Over 3.5 40.8% 40.0% 2.50 +2.0%

BTTS 55.3% 59.9% 1.67 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -9.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob55.3%

A 67% / xG 1.0-2.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–1 8.9%

#4 1–1 8.5%

#5 0–3 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sakaryaspor1.0

Erokspor2.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SAKARYASPOR · PPG 1.35

EROKSPOR · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.35)

Win probability 1X2

Sakaryaspor (H) 14.3%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -19.9%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -24.6%

Erokspor (A) 67.3%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sakaryaspor face Erokspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sakaryaspor a 14% chance, the draw 18% and Erokspor 67%, so Erokspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sakaryaspor and 2.3 for Erokspor (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sakaryaspor are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 2.00 for Erokspor. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.1%.

Sakaryaspor vs Erokspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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