Sakaryaspor vs Erokspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Turkey - 1. Lig Monday, April 13, 2026 —

Sakaryaspor PPG 1.35

VS PENDING

Erokspor PPG 2.00

Over2.5· +2.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Sakaryaspor face Erokspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sakaryaspor a 14% chance, the draw 18% and Erokspor 67%, so Erokspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sakaryaspor and 2.3 for Erokspor (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sakaryaspor are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 2.00 for Erokspor. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.1%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 14.3%

Odds: 5.60 EV: -19.9%

Draw 18.4%

Odds: 4.10 EV: -24.6%

Away 67.3%

Odds: 1.48 EV: -0.4%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.0% Odds: 1.62 +2.1%

Over 3.5 40.8% Odds: 2.50 +2.0%

BTTS 55.3% Odds: 1.67 -7.6%

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-2

2nd 1-2

3rd 0-1

4th 1-1

5th 0-3

Expected Goals (xG)

Sakaryaspor

0.96

Erokspor

2.29

Model SuggestionAway -0.4% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-0.4%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5/Under 52%

BTTS/No 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -82.8%

Bet Hit 17% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.35)