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Amed SK vs Umraniyespor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Monday, April 13, 2026

Amed SK

PPG 2.65 · HOME

UPCOMING

Umraniyespor

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 79.3% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-12.8%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.6%1-16.7%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.3%2-18.1%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.4%3-16.6%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-013.3%4+-17.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 79.3% 78.1% 1.28 +1.5%

Draw 14.4% 20.0% 5.00 -28.0%

Away win 6.3% 11.4% 8.80 -44.6%

Over 2.5 56.6% 69.0% 1.45 -17.9%

Over 3.5 34.2% 46.5% 2.15 -26.5%

BTTS 37.6% 57.8% 1.73 -34.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -9.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob37.6%

H 79% / xG 2.4-0.5 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.3%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 3–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 4–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Amed SK2.4

Umraniyespor0.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.6% · O3.5 PROB 34.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AMED SK · PPG 2.65

UMRANIYESPOR · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.65), Away POOR (0.82) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Amed SK (H) 79.3%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV +1.5%

Draw 14.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -28.0%

Umraniyespor (A) 6.3%

ODDS 8.80 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV -44.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Amed SK face Umraniyespor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Amed SK a 79% chance, the draw 14% and Umraniyespor 6%, so Amed SK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Amed SK and 0.5 for Umraniyespor (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Amed SK are averaging 2.65 points per game versus 0.82 for Umraniyespor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.5%.

Amed SK vs Umraniyespor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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