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Lusitania FC vs FC Porto B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Monday, April 13, 2026

Lusitania FC

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Porto B

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.9% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+56.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.1%0-23.8%0-32.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.4%1-18.1%1-27.4%1-34.5%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.3%2-34.4%2-4+3.1%3 3-02.8%3-15.2%3-24.7%3-32.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-14.0%4+-23.6%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 44.2% 2.26 -5.3%

Draw 21.3% 32.3% 3.10 -34.0%

Away win 36.8% 32.3% 3.10 +14.1%

Over 2.5 72.9% 46.5% 2.15 +56.7%

Over 3.5 52.4% 26.0% 3.85 +101.7%

BTTS 72.1% 55.6% 1.80 +29.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob72.1%

H 42% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lusitania FC2.0

FC Porto B1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.9% · O3.5 PROB 52.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LUSITANIA FC · PPG 1.29

FC PORTO B · PPG 1.07

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Lusitania FC (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -5.3%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -34.0%

FC Porto B (A) 36.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lusitania FC face FC Porto B in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lusitania FC a 42% chance, the draw 21% and FC Porto B 37%, so Lusitania FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lusitania FC and 1.8 for FC Porto B (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lusitania FC are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.07 for FC Porto B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +101.7%.

Lusitania FC vs FC Porto B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Segunda Liga Predictions