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FC Porto B vs Benfica B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 34 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 17:00

FC Porto B

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Benfica B

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-111.3%0-25.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.9%1-113.3%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.6%2-17.8%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.0%3-13.1%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 31.3% 3.20 +26.7%

Draw 31.6% 28.6% 3.50 +10.6%

Away win 28.8% 49.0% 2.04 -24.8%

Over 2.5 45.4% 56.5% 1.77 -19.6%

Over 3.5 18.3% 34.5% 2.90 -28.2%

BTTS 51.2% 61.7% 1.62 -17.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.2%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Porto B1.2

Benfica B1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FC PORTO B · PPG 1.81

BENFICA B · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

FC Porto B (H) 39.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +26.7%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +10.6%

Benfica B (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Porto B face Benfica B in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Porto B a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Benfica B 29%, so FC Porto B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FC Porto B and 1.0 for Benfica B (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Porto B are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.19 for Benfica B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.7%. This match finished 2-0.

FC Porto B vs Benfica B Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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