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Maritimo vs Chaves Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 34 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 18:00

Maritimo

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Chaves

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-19.2%0-23.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.9%1-112.5%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-18.5%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.9%3-13.9%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 48.1% 2.08 +3.6%

Draw 27.4% 29.9% 3.35 -4.9%

Away win 22.8% 31.3% 3.20 -16.2%

Over 2.5 45.4% 52.4% 1.91 -13.3%

Over 3.5 17.1% 30.3% 3.30 -26.1%

BTTS 48.1% 58.8% 1.70 -18.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -31.4%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.1%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 15.9%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maritimo1.4

Chaves0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MARITIMO · PPG 1.94

CHAVES · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Maritimo (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +3.6%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -4.9%

Chaves (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maritimo face Chaves in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maritimo a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Chaves 23%, so Maritimo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Maritimo and 0.8 for Chaves (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maritimo are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.19 for Chaves. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Maritimo vs Chaves Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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