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Chaves vs Leixoes Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:30

Chaves

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Leixoes

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-19.3%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.7%1-112.8%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.8%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.0%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 43.1% 2.32 +4.2%

Draw 28.4% 32.3% 3.10 -7.2%

Away win 26.7% 33.6% 2.98 -12.3%

Over 2.5 46.5% 48.8% 2.05 -4.7%

Over 3.5 21.9% 27.4% 3.65 -12.0%

BTTS 52.3% 57.1% 1.75 -8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chaves1.4

Leixoes1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAVES · PPG 1.44

LEIXOES · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Chaves (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +4.2%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.2%

Leixoes (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chaves face Leixoes in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chaves a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Leixoes 27%, so Chaves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Chaves and 1.0 for Leixoes (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chaves are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.38 for Leixoes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Chaves vs Leixoes Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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