Chaves vs Leixoes Prediction & Tips

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Portugal - Segunda Liga Regular Season - 33 Estadio Municipal de Chaves· Chaves Saturday, May 9, 2026 14:30

Chaves PPG 1.44

1-2 MISS

Leixoes PPG 1.38

Home· +4.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.9%

Odds: 2.32 EV: +4.2%

Draw 28.4%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -7.2%

Away 26.7%

Odds: 2.98 EV: -12.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.5% Odds: 2.05 -4.7%

Over 3.5 21.9% Odds: 3.65 -12.0%

BTTS 52.3% Odds: 1.75 -8.5%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Chaves

1.38

Leixoes

1.01

Model SuggestionBTTS -8.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -8.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+4.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away AVERAGE (1.38)