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Portimonense vs Farense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:30

Portimonense

PPG 1.06 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Farense

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-113.4%0-26.9%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.0%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.6%2-16.8%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.2%3-12.3%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 38.8% 2.58 -9.7%

Draw 30.3% 29.9% 3.35 +1.5%

Away win 34.7% 40.7% 2.46 -14.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 54.6% 1.83 -15.4%

Over 3.5 15.2% 32.3% 3.10 -31.7%

BTTS 48.7% 60.6% 1.65 -19.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 0–1 13.4%

#4 1–0✓ 13.0%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portimonense1.0

Farense1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTIMONENSE · PPG 1.06

FARENSE · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.06) vs Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Portimonense (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -9.7%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +1.5%

Farense (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portimonense face Farense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portimonense a 35% chance, the draw 30% and Farense 35%, so Portimonense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Portimonense and 1.0 for Farense (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portimonense are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.44 for Farense. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Portimonense vs Farense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Segunda Liga Predictions