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Torreense vs Vizela Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 10:00

Torreense

PPG 1.81 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Vizela

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-112.1%0-25.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.4%1-113.3%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.5%2-17.4%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.1%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 51.5% 1.94 -19.3%

Draw 32.8% 30.3% 3.30 +8.2%

Away win 25.5% 27.4% 3.65 -4.2%

Over 2.5 35.9% 50.0% 2.00 -28.2%

Over 3.5 13.8% 28.6% 3.50 -31.0%

BTTS 48.6% 56.5% 1.77 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.9%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.4%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torreense1.1

Vizela0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 13.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TORREENSE · PPG 1.81

VIZELA · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Torreense (H) 41.6%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -19.3%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +8.2%

Vizela (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torreense face Vizela in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torreense a 42% chance, the draw 33% and Vizela 26%, so Torreense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Torreense and 0.9 for Vizela (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torreense are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.44 for Vizela. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 4-0.

Torreense vs Vizela Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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