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Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 28 ·Monday, April 13, 2026

Piast Gliwice

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pogon Szczecin

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 45.9% — a clear edge.

+22.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-15.9%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.6%1-110.8%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.9%3-16.0%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 45.9% 2.18 +22.9%

Draw 22.8% 28.6% 3.50 -20.2%

Away win 20.8% 32.8% 3.05 -36.6%

Over 2.5 54.3% 55.6% 1.80 -2.3%

Over 3.5 31.9% 33.3% 3.00 -4.3%

BTTS 53.7% 60.6% 1.65 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.7%

H 56% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Piast Gliwice1.8

Pogon Szczecin1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PIAST GLIWICE · PPG 1.38

POGON SZCZECIN · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.62)

Win probability 1X2

Piast Gliwice (H) 56.4%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +22.9%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -20.2%

Pogon Szczecin (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -36.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Piast Gliwice face Pogon Szczecin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Piast Gliwice a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Pogon Szczecin 21%, so Piast Gliwice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Piast Gliwice and 1.0 for Pogon Szczecin (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.62 for Pogon Szczecin. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.9%.

Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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