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Piast Gliwice vs Rakow C. Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 33 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 10:15

Piast Gliwice

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rakow C.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-110.3%0-26.3%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.6%1-112.9%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.6%2-18.1%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.8%3-13.4%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 38.5% 2.60 -4.8%

Draw 27.4% 30.3% 3.30 -5.8%

Away win 36.0% 38.5% 2.60 -6.4%

Over 2.5 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Over 3.5 23.6% 28.2% 3.55 -9.7%

BTTS 51.9% 57.1% 1.75 -9.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.9%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Piast Gliwice1.3

Rakow C.1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PIAST GLIWICE · PPG 1.38

RAKOW C. · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Piast Gliwice (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -4.8%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.8%

Rakow C. (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Piast Gliwice face Rakow C. in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Piast Gliwice a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Rakow C. 36%, so Piast Gliwice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Piast Gliwice and 1.2 for Rakow C. (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.50 for Rakow C.. This match finished 1-3.

Piast Gliwice vs Rakow C. Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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