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Legia Warsaw vs Motor Lublin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:30

Legia Warsaw

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Motor Lublin

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-19.4%0-24.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.6%1-112.8%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.7%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.9%3-14.0%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 64.9% 1.54 -29.2%

Draw 27.9% 23.8% 4.20 +10.3%

Away win 26.1% 18.5% 5.40 +24.6%

Over 2.5 47.2% 63.7% 1.57 -25.9%

Over 3.5 21.7% 41.7% 2.40 -28.7%

BTTS 51.6% 61.7% 1.62 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.3%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Legia Warsaw1.4

Motor Lublin1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 21.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEGIA WARSAW · PPG 1.69

MOTOR LUBLIN · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Legia Warsaw (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -29.2%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +10.3%

Motor Lublin (A) 26.1%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Legia Warsaw face Motor Lublin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Legia Warsaw a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Motor Lublin 26%, so Legia Warsaw are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Legia Warsaw and 1.0 for Motor Lublin (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Legia Warsaw are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.19 for Motor Lublin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Legia Warsaw vs Motor Lublin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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