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Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:30

Gornik Zabrze

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

6 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Radomiak Radom

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.6%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.7%1-112.0%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.5%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.9%3-15.0%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 68.0% 1.47 -25.5%

Draw 25.2% 21.5% 4.65 +10.3%

Away win 24.1% 17.2% 5.80 +23.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Over 3.5 26.5% 40.8% 2.45 -21.0%

BTTS 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gornik Zabrze1.6

Radomiak Radom1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GORNIK ZABRZE · PPG 1.94

RADOMIAK RADOM · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.94) vs P(Home)=50.7%

Win probability 1X2

Gornik Zabrze (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.47 · IMPLIED 68.0% EV -25.5%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +10.3%

Radomiak Radom (A) 24.1%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gornik Zabrze face Radomiak Radom in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gornik Zabrze a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Radomiak Radom 24%, so Gornik Zabrze are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Gornik Zabrze and 1.0 for Radomiak Radom (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 0.81 for Radomiak Radom. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.9%. This match finished 6-2.

Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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