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Rakow C. vs Arka Gdynia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:30

Rakow C.

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Arka Gdynia

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Home 69% chance

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.7%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.1%1-110.5%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.4%3-16.0%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-14.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 76.3% 1.31 -30.3%

Draw 24.7% 19.6% 5.10 +15.6%

Away win 22.1% 11.2% 8.90 +58.0%

Over 2.5 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Over 3.5 27.5% 41.7% 2.40 -20.4%

BTTS 51.6% 52.6% 1.90 -2.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 12.1%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rakow C.1.8

Arka Gdynia0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RAKOW C. · PPG 1.56

ARKA GDYNIA · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

69%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Rakow C. (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -30.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +15.6%

Arka Gdynia (A) 22.1%

ODDS 8.90 · IMPLIED 11.2% EV +58.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rakow C. face Arka Gdynia in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rakow C. a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Arka Gdynia 22%, so Rakow C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Rakow C. and 0.8 for Arka Gdynia (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rakow C. are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.38 for Arka Gdynia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +58.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Rakow C. vs Arka Gdynia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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